The Earth is Heating Up: Deciphering This Summer’s Cool Spell
Despite the fact that fossil fuels have maintained Earth’s temperature at approximately 1.5°C above its preindustrial levels for over a year, many of us have noticed a distinct chill in the air this summer, particularly in regions like the UK. This discrepancy between long-term warming trends and short-term weather patterns raises questions and, if well addressed, can help counteract skepticism surrounding climate change.
In our quest to understand this apparent contradiction, insights from atmospheric physicist Matthew Patterson of the University of Reading provide much-needed clarity. According to Patterson, the cool summer in the UK is not as unusual as it seems; rather, temperatures, sunlight, and rainfall measures all align closely with seasonal expectations. Still, due to decades of rapid warming, what was once considered “average” now feels notably cooler.
Europe’s climate, for example, has warmed roughly twice as fast as the global average rate since the 1970s, with extreme summer temperatures increasing even more swiftly. Given that the UK has experienced its five hottest days since 1910 within the last five years, our perception of temperature has shifted. We’ve grown accustomed to higher temperatures, making anything less feel colder and more notable than it might have in the past.
This phenomenon, known as shifting baseline syndrome, underlines how each new generation adjusts to the climate conditions of its era, losing reference for what was considered normal by previous generations. Therefore, even in an era of global warming, instances of extreme cold can and do still occur.
Indeed, a contrary pattern emerges in southern Australia, where winter conditions have brought unusually cold weather. Andrew King, a senior lecturer in climate science at the University of Queensland, mentions record-breaking low temperatures in Tasmania as a stark example. Yet, despite such cold spells, the overarching trend in Australia, as in much of the world, leans towards warming, with cold bouts becoming rarer and milder over the decades.
Your attention should not be diverted by these cold instances; the bigger picture remains critical. As King points out, while individual weather stations might report record-setting lows, these do not alter the global, or even national, averages significantly. The world, including Australia, is setting heat records far more frequently than cold ones.
Illustrations of weather reflecting dangerous levels of global warming are not difficult to find. Extreme temperatures have challenged humans and infrastructure alike, from Saudi Arabia to the United States, Pakistan to Greece, and Japan. These incidents cannot be ignored just because some regions are experiencing cooler summers.
Climate scientists Matthew Barlow and Jeffrey Basara emphasize the gravity of crossing the 1.5°C warming threshold, even if for just a single year. This marks humanity’s initial step into what can be considered dangerous climate change territory, a shift that was aimed to be prevented by the international agreement made in Paris. Though global averages mask the variance in weather day-to-day and place-to-place, the trend towards warmer temperatures is unmistakable and demands action.
This summer might indeed be among the coolest we’ll experience in our lifetimes, thanks to the overall direction of climate change. With the world’s weather stations finalizing their assessments, the summer of 2024 is poised to set records, but also serves as a reminder of the colder climates we are leaving behind.
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