As Trump’s win tests the world order, diplomats are fretting over what it means for the planet

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s re-election, both allies and adversaries of the United States are pondering the implications for global economies, security, and ongoing conflicts. A separate sphere of concern revolves around the environmental community, where diplomats are setting their focus on Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, for the COP29 climate talks. The mounting tension is understandable, as Trump has signalled his intention to withdraw the United States once more from the Paris Agreement, an accord binding nearly every nation on Earth to substantially reduce carbon emissions.

This potential policy reversal by the US poses significant repercussions for global climate efforts. Historically, American actions on the international stage have influenced trends globally, with some countries often mirroring these choices.

“The Paris Agreement necessitates a critical mass of economic powerhouses and major carbon emitters to tackle this immense challenge effectively,” notes an analyst at a leading think tank. As the upcoming inauguration approaches, negotiators at the climate talks may have to adjust their expectations regarding feasible outcomes. “Major emitters might be reluctant to pursue aggressive climate policies if the US opts out, fearing competitive disadvantages,” he added.

The ramifications of the US stepping back from climate commitments extend beyond environmental concerns. As the second most prolific carbon polluter and the leading oil producer globally, the absence of US leadership could hinder funding for climate initiatives in developing nations. Even under the current Paris Agreement, Trump’s “America First” stance might curtail US involvement in supporting global green transitions through financial means.

These challenges place the COP29 discussions on precarious footing. A primary objective of the negotiations was reaching consensus on increased financial assistance to help disadvantaged countries develop clean energy and adapt to intensifying climatic events, such as heat waves, floods, and wildfires.

The lead-up to the COP29 conference already hinted at underwhelming progress. This marks the third consecutive year the talks are being hosted by a petrostate, with a veteran from a state oil company presiding over the proceedings. Notably absent from the event are several key global leaders typically involved in such discussions.

Further compounding concerns are leaders canceling their participation due to various crises and emergencies, reducing the likelihood of impactful dialogue on climate change and missing the opportunity to engage Trump on this critical issue.

Timing for Trump’s win is particularly unfavourable for the planet. The year 2024 is projected to be the hottest on record, compounded by back-to-back hurricanes intensified by exceptional ocean temperatures, claiming hundreds of lives in the US alone.

There is now apprehension that other nations might consider withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, taking cues from a disengaged United States. While some believe that America’s reputation as an unreliable ally may suffer, others worry about the deeper consequences of inconsistent climate policies.

Previously, it took substantial efforts for the Biden administration to rebuild trust on the international stage after Trump’s initial withdrawal from the climate agreement. “Withdrawing from leadership roles in climate efforts is disheartening,” remarked a former climate envoy.

Furthermore, environmental advocates fear that a US void might allow China to bolster its own influence in global climate leadership. China is already making significant strides in renewable energy, rapidly expanding its solar and wind power capabilities and exporting them worldwide.

The European Union, too, faces pressure to elevate its efforts to make up for the potential loss of US participation. In the intricate dynamics of global climate politics, the interplay of major powers often resembles that of a tricycle, with all three entities— the EU, China, and the US—required for stability.

Given current urgencies and the four-year stall in climate initiatives that a second Trump term could entail, inaction poses dire risks. The international community stands at the midpoint of a decisive decade crucial for addressing climate change. Pledges need alignment with action to limit future warming.

Increased temperatures are already evident, surpassing pre-industrial levels by 1.3 degrees. Under current national commitments, the best outcome would limit warming to 1.9 degrees, while existing trends suggest a path toward a 2.3-degree rise. This amplifies the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, placing vulnerable populations at greater risk and requiring targeted interventions.

“Every fraction of a degree in climate change matters significantly,” reinforces a climate scientist, noting the increasing regularity of extreme weather events. “Such challenges, once viewed as exceptional, will become common occurrences, especially affecting communities with limited resources for adaptation.”

The responsibility to act decisively on climate remains paramount, emphasizing the need for leadership, cooperation, and commitment to ensure a sustainable future for all.