LA Wildfires: Did Climate Change Make Them Worse?

Los Angeles has recently been engulfed by two massive wildfires that stand among the most damaging in the city’s history. As these fires continue to devastate the area, experts point to human-driven climate change as a significant factor exacerbating these natural disasters.

The Palisades and Eaton fires, both igniting on January 7, continue to burn fiercely after three weeks, leaving behind a trail of destruction that includes at least 28 fatalities and more than 16,000 ruined structures. These fires highlight an escalating trend in fire severity and frequency attributed to climate change unraveled by a recent analysis.

The US West Coast, particularly known for its warm, dry climate, is historically susceptible to intense wildfires. Nonetheless, contemporary research reveals that climate change — predominantly spurred by fossil fuel consumption — greatly intensifies these calamitous fires.

Specific weather conditions prevalent during the Los Angeles fires — hot, dry, and windy — were found to be approximately 35% more probable due to climate change. A collaborative research initiative of international scientists details these findings, attributing much of the intensification of such events to the rising global temperatures since pre-industrial times.

Recent studies indicate that global temperatures have risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius. As a result, California experienced an unusually high frequency of extreme fire-conducive weather, characterized by scarce rainfall from October to December and intensified Santa Ana winds, both of which exacerbated the fires.

Professor Theo Keeping, a leading researcher in global wildfires, emphasizes the disturbing increase in conditions conducive to such devastating events. “We are witnessing an alarming upward trend in the potential for such events compared to earlier decades,” he explains, pinpointing climate change’s role in this acceleration.

Winter fires, like those currently ravaging Los Angeles, are becoming notably more common. Historically larger fires occur during the summer months, from July to September. However, man-made climate change has contributed to fire-season weather patterns, which facilitated the recent surge in wildfires occurring about every 17 years as opposed to every 23 years in pre-industrial settings, depending on the region’s climate variability.

This dangerous trajectory is expected to persist. Projections estimate that if global warming continues at its current pace, leading to a 2.6 degrees increase by the century’s end, the likelihood of severe wildfires could rise another 35%.

Understanding Climate ‘Whiplash’

The climatic phenomenon known as “hydroclimate whiplash” illustrates how a warming planet can transition between years of heavy rainfall to those marked by significant drought. Warmer air not only carries more moisture but also has an enhanced capability to absorb it, as outlined by Keeping. This climatic variability increases lush vegetation in wet years, which becomes fuel in dry years when drought conditions prevail.

Southern California witnessed accelerated vegetation growth in 2023. However, the anticipated rains failed to materialize later in the year, drying up potential fuel for subsequent fires, thus intensifying their severity.

This whiplash effect was directly responsible for the escalation of recent fires, contributing to a dry season extended by about 23 days compared to periods when global temperatures were cooler. Additionally, the LA region hasn’t experienced regular rainfall since May 2024, further igniting the fire-susceptible conditions it and the dry Santa Ana winds foster.

Worldwide Wildfire Patterns and the Future

Research aligns these findings with a global trend of extreme wildfires partly corroborating previous studies. The issue spans continents, including recent devastating events in Canada and Brazil. In essence, rising temperatures globally contribute to more frequent and severe fire-prone weather.

As noted by a researcher involved in the study, “An exhaustive analysis of scientific literature indicates a clear rise in wildfire risks globally.”

Conclusively, to mitigate such events in the future, experts worldwide emphasize the urgency of reducing fossil fuel use. The continuation of current patterns will only serve to increase California’s susceptibility to these fierce, destructive fires, leading to more frequent deadly infernos.